Series Preview

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Matt Brooks

The Denver Nuggets advanced to the second round of the NBA playoffs after a hard-fought five-game slugfest with the Los Angeles Lakers. Their reward? The Minnesota Timberwolves, who so far look like one of the hottest teams in the NBA playoffs.

Minnesota went head-to-head with the Phoenix Suns and their three-headed monster of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal in round one. It was projected to be a coin-toss series. Many wondered if the six-seeded Suns could pull off the upset in the first round because of their star power.

Instead, Minnesota eradicated Phoenix in four largely uncompetitive games. The Timberwolves are playing with a lot of confidence after their convincing sweep, and now they take on the defending champions.

The Nuggets will have homecourt advantage after finishing one game ahead of the Wolves in the regular season. That could be very important. Game 7, if the series gets there, would be at Ball Arena. Denver finished with the NBA's second-best home record in the regular season.

Minnesota has a concrete identity: defense. They allowed just 108.9 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. That was the NBA's best defensive rating by a significant margin; the second-place Orlando Magic finished the year with a 111.5 defensive rating.

Minnesota's defense passes the eye test, too. They're one of the few teams in the league that can make Denver's offense look discombobulated, at times, because of the length and athleticism strewn across their roster. Four of their five starters have 6'9 wingspans or bigger—Anthony Edwards (6'9), Jaden McDaniels (7'0), Karl-Anthony Towns (7'4), and Rudy Gobert (7'9)—and two of those players, McDaniels and Gobert, are favorites to make one of the two All-Defensive teams.

Their offense isn't as tidy. They finished just 16th on offense in the regular season, and though they led the first round in offensive rating, there's still a lot to be proven on that end for the Wolves. Edwards and Towns had terrific first-round showings, but now, they'll go up against a much tougher test.

Denver finished ninth in defensive efficiency, the best finish of the Nikola Jokić era. Their defense held up well against Minnesota in the regular season. Denver was particularly dogged about pushing Timberwolf ball handlers away from the middle of the floor and using the sidelines as a third defender of sorts (this is known as 'ICE' pick-and-roll defense).

Minnesota and Denver split their regular season series, 2-2. Again, this is shaping up to be a classic.

Rudy Gobert → Nikola Jokić&nbsp;Karl-Anthony Towns&nbsp;→ Aaron Gordon&nbsp;Anthony Edwards →&nbsp;Michael Porter Jr. &nbsp;Mike Conley → Kentavious Caldwell-Pope&nbsp;Jaden McDaniels → Jamal Murray

This is a very important series for Jamal Murray. We'll get more into why in a later section, but he's going to have to go against a gauntlet of tough perimeter defenders. McDaniels, as mentioned, is a candidate to make an All-Defensive team, and behind him is reserve, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who made Murray work in last year's playoff series between Minnesota and Denver.

Michael Porter Jr. is coming off his best playoff series to date and averaged 22.8 points and 8.4 rebounds on 55.3 percent from the field and a sizzling 48.8 percent from three-point land against the Lakers. You could make the case that because of how hot he's running, maybe it'd be smart for Minnesota to put their best defender, McDaniels, on Porter Jr.

But in the regular season, MPJ had no trouble shooting over the top of McDaniels; that's the benefit of being a full 6'10 with a high release point and quick shooting stroke. When he has it going like this, practically no one in the NBA can affect him.

Perhaps it's just smart for Minnesota to keep Edwards glued to Porter Jr. and live with the results. If he's going to get his no matter what, why bother using important resources on a player who's largely unbothered by contests? McDaniels and Alexander-Walker can instead focus their energy on full-court pressuring Murray, the head of the snake of Denver's offense (at least from a ball-handling perspective).

This feels like another big series for Mike. Denver will need his tough shot-making against a defense this stingy.

One last thing: Edwards has improved a great deal on the defensive end. He's a very tough player to score on one-on-one and will probably get some reps defending Murray. However, his attentiveness away from the ball comes and goes, so it'd be smart for Denver to put him in off-ball actions. Here, the Nuggets have Murray set a back screen on him for Gordon, and Edwards gets completely lost when Jamal rolls to the rim.

If Ant's guarding MPJ, which is what we have projected in this preview, that's an advantage for Denver. Porter Jr. is one of the best off-ball scorers in the league. Make Edwards defend multiple actions.

Nikola Jokić&nbsp;→ Rudy GobertAaron Gordon&nbsp;→ Karl-Anthony TownsMichael Porter Jr. → Jaden McDanielsKentavious Caldwell-Pope&nbsp;→ Anthony EdwardsJamal Murray → Mike Conley

Breaking news: The guy that averaged 31 points, 9 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on 51.2 percent from the field and 43.8 percent from three-point land is going to be a tough cover! Yeah, safe to say that Anthony Edwards is atop Denver's scouting report.

Edwards was built in a lab to destroy defenses. He's one of the quickest players in the association, but he's also incredibly strong. That makes him a brutally tough cover for most perimeter defenders. It's tough to match his speed and strength. Denver has thrown a multitude of defenders his way in the past two seasons.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is having an All-Defensive Team-caliber season, so he should get the first crack. Ant outweighs Caldwell-Pope by a full 20 pounds, and his physicality is a tricky proposition for the 31-year-old. He went 17-of-28 from the field when guarded by KCP in the regular season. Aaron Gordon is another option to throw at Edwards just because he can match up in the strength department, but better usage for AG is probably against Towns.

Jamal Murray actually did a pretty nice job against Edwards in the regular season. They're about the same size (Murray is 215 pounds and Edwards is 225), so he's able to absorb some of Ant's physicality. Still, that's a pretty heavy workload on Murray's shoulders to both commandeer the offense and defend one of the most explosive players of the postseason.

Speaking of Murray, it's critical that he—and the rest of Denver's perimeter defenders—stays diligent about going over ball screens when Minnesota has Mike Conley handle the rock in the pick-and-roll. Conley was one of the NBA's best regular season pull-up three-point shooters at 45.7 percent. Going under ball screens is an open invitation for him to take off-the-dribble shots.

This series is ripe with opportunity for Michael Porter Jr.'s improved off-ball defense. He's developed into quite the secondary rim protector that weaponizes his 9-foot standing reach. McDaniels shot just 27.3 percent from three in the first round and was a 33.7 percent shooter in the regular season. Whenever he's stationed on the perimeter, that's a great opportunity for Porter Jr. to sink into the painted area and clog up Minnesota's offense as an extra defender. If that results in open corner threes from McDaniels, so be it. That's a very livable outcome for Denver's defense.

Nikola Jokić should have an easier time in this series. He guarded Anthony Davis for most of the first round, and Rudy Gobert is nowhere close as an offensive player. There's nothing in Minnesota's playbook that should give Denver trouble like the Lakers' pick-and-roll game between Davis and LeBron James.

Finally, Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off a great series against the Suns. He averaged 19.3 points on 53.1 percent from the field and 52.9 percent from three while mostly being guarded by Kevin Durant. This series won't be so easy. Aaron Gordon is one of the best players in the NBA at "guarding up." He held Towns to just 37 percent shooting from the field in last year's first-round series despite a 4-inch height disadvantage. There's proven success for Denver with that specific matchup.

KEY TO THE SERIES (MINNESOTA): BENCH MINUTES

Head coach Michael Malone highlighted two important battlegrounds for his team in the first media availability of the second round. Transition offense was one of them. In their two wins against Minnesota, the Nuggets averaged north of 16 points in transition; they were held to just 6 fastbreak points in the two losses. That, along with rebounding, could be where the series is decided according to Malone. Minnesota will need to hone in on Denver's transition game.

Bench minutes are another massive storyline. Minnesota's rotation is deep. There's an argument to be made that they boast seven starting-caliber players. Sixth Man of the Year winner, Naz Reid, and Alexander-Walker are THAT good. Playing Denver's starters to a draw—or close to it—and winning the reserve minutes could be the magic formula for Minnesota.

The identity of Denver's bench has long been defense. That rings especially true when Malone rolls out his small-ball lineup with Gordon at center. That unit crushed the 2023 playoffs and outscored opponents by 4 points per 100 possessions in this year's regular season.

Minnesota's offense can already appear a bit mechanical as is, but it looked especially bogged down when Malone went to this look. Having five players who can switch on defense took the air out of Minnesota's offensive flow. The Wolves will need to do a better job against this Nuggets bench unit that's interchangeable one through five.

This should be a really important series for Peyton Watson. He guarded Reid a lot in the regular season. Early on, that was quite the challenge for the 21-year-old. But after a year of strengthening his body and learning the tips of the trade from his teammates, Watson did a pretty nice job against Reid in the last regular season matchup.

Christian Braun should also have a big role in this series. He's another option to throw at Edwards, and he might be Denver's best option. He's got everything you could need from a physical perspective: speed, a 40-inch vertical leap that's valuable when contesting shots, and size at 6'6 to throw at the 6'4 Edwards.

KEY TO THE SERIES (DENVER): NIKOLA JOKIĆ'S COUNTERS

The Los Angeles Lakers opened round one with a unique defensive strategy against Nikola Jokić. Instead of having 6'10 Anthony Davis guard Jokić like normal, Los Angeles used 6'8 Rui Hachimura as Nikola's primary defender. Davis, meanwhile, lurked nearby as a secondary shot-blocker.

Minnesota has also defended the Nuggets and Jokić this way, and they might be better at it than anyone in the league.

Part of it is that Jokić absolutely decimates Gobert in single coverage. Nikola made 13-of-21 shots (61.9 percent) when guarded by Gobert in the regular season according to NBA matchup data. Letting Jokić run point guard in transition is a great way to set up one-on-one possessions against the soon-to-be four-time Defensive Player of the Year.

We'll likely see Minnesota use Towns as Jokić's primary defender at times, leaving Gobert on Gordon. Denver likes to place AG in the two dunker spots next to the basket on offense, and Gobert is one of the few players in the league who can affect plays as a secondary shot-blocker while keeping tabs on a high-flyer like Gordon.

Here, Gobert rotates over to help Reid with Jokić, but when Nikola passes to an open Gordon underneath the basket, Rudy is able to recover back to his man and get a hand on the shot. He's got remarkable mobility for a 7'1 player.

This is just one example of Gobert's effectiveness as a "roamer." There are plenty of others from the regular season.

Now, the Nuggets have access to two full seasons of tape against this strategy since Gobert became a Timberwolf in 2022. They'll be prepared. Pushing the pace in transition is one way to make it impossible for Minnesota to set their defense in the halfcourt, but there are other counters at Denver's disposal.

Nikola's midrange game is one of them. Gobert can't really affect plays when Jokić is 12-to-15 feet away from the hoop. He sort of just stands there and watches. Leaving Gordon to lurch at Nikola from this distance is basically asking for an AG alley-oop dunk. Jokić will need to have his in-between game clicking on all cylinders in the second round.

Fading away on shots—instead of leaning into the defender and finishing up close where Gobert is waiting–is another fruitful strategy. Once again, Gobert looks like a helpless bystander while Jokić launches this fading hook shot over the top of Towns.

Attacking early before Gobert's in position is another one. Note how Jokić made his move RIGHT when he caught the ball in the post, and Gobert wasn't able to rotate over in time as the helper.

Jokić will also do genius Nikola Jokić things to beat the strategy because, well, he's Nikola Jokić! Here, he fakes a dribble-handoff to Braun and drives hard to the basket. Gobert is nowhere to be found. Nikola beat him to the punch.

Malone can get creative with his offense and specifically tailor sets to get Nikola good looks. Springing him off-ball, for example, is a great way to keep Minnesota's defense on its toes. Here, Jokić sets a cross screen for Braun and then flies into a pindown screen from Murray. All of this off-ball movement makes Gobert hesitate, and Jokić has room to launch his gelato-soft floater. Off-ball movement will be key in this series, generally speaking, against a defense as suffocating as Minnesota's.

You might even see Malone have Nikola space the floor on occasion. Jokić is a 40.8 percent three-point shooter in his postseason career, so you have to account for him when he's slotted along the perimeter. That should unpack the paint a little bit. From there, Denver can go to other actions to attack the Wolves' defense... like the Gordon and Murray pick-and-roll.

Jokić begins this possession in the corner but then rises to the top of the arc. That pulls Towns out of the painted area, thereby allowing Gordon and Murray to attack McDaniels and Gobert two-on-two. The result is an open Gordon dunk. Jokić's gravity as a shooter can decongest the paint for his teammates.

Lastly, because Towns may be guarding Jokić some, this is a great opportunity for Denver to get one of Minnesota's main scoring options in foul trouble. Only two players averaged more fouls per game than Towns' 3.3 in the regular season, and he struggled with foul trouble throughout most of the first round. Jokić drawing some frustration fouls out of KAT is a great way to both defang Minnesota's offense and get Nikola some freebies at the line.

X-FACTOR (MINNESOTA): ANTHONY EDWARDS' PASSING

Edwards put up some gaudy numbers against Phoenix, but there's one that stands out. And no, it's not the outrageous 31 points per game.

His 6.3 assists should have your attention.

Ant had never averaged more than 5.2 assists in a playoff series until this year. He averaged 5.3 assists in the 2023-24 regular season. Passing was always the final piece for Edwards offensively, and it appears that leap is happening in front of us. Great players are just like that sometimes; things can click on the biggest stage.

Phoenix didn't have anyone who could guard Edwards one-on-one, so they showed him a crowd on isolations and drives to the rim. Ant consistently beat those packed-paint defenses by finding the open man.

At times, the Suns would just full-out blitz Edwards and send the double-team. Once again, Ant was remarkably patient against this style of defense, retreating a couple of steps with the ball in his hand and finding the open teammate.

And look, some of Ant's assists against Phoenix were just star-level passes. We're talking, like, crosscourt dimes over three defenders right into the corner man's shooting pocket.

Denver is pretty aggressive defensively. They'll have Jokić play up at the level of screens or blitz when needed. That's in large part how Nikola accumulates so many steals (eighth in total steals during the regular season) and deflections (fifth in the NBA).

Edwards will need to continue capitalizing against help-heavy defenses and trusting his teammates. His passing could very well decide the length of this second-round series.

X-FACTOR (DENVER): JAMAL MURRAY'S PULL-UP JUMPER

Jamal Murray had a down series by his standards against the Los Angeles Lakers and still hit two game-winners in five games. That's how ridiculous of a playoff riser he is.

Minnesota likes to keep Gobert, its Defensive Player of the Year anchor, stationed in the painted area. Rudy is a great all-around defender, but he's at his best when he's near the rim erasing close-up shots.

Gobert is a paint defense unto himself, and he's now surrounded by staunch perimeter defenders like McDaniels, Alexander-Walker, Edwards, and Conley. That is what makes Minnesota's defense so lethal; there are no weak links nor any weak points in the halfcourt.

Those perimeter defenders make it tough to touch the painted area in the first place, and if you do, well, Rudy Gobert is waiting. What looks like a wide-open midrange jumper for Murray turns into an end-of-shot-clock heave from Jokić because of Gobert's defensive gravity.

Getting shots up close won't be easy for Denver. They'll need to create some breathing room offensively.

Murray made 29.4 percent of his three-point shots against the Lakers, but things started to perk up in Game 5 when he went 5-of-10 deep. That's a very, very good thing for Denver. Jamal is by far the team's best off-the-dribble shooter. If he can nail his pull-up jumpers, then the Wolves may have no other option but to throw the kitchen sink at him... and that opens things up for his teammates.

Here's a fun statistic: Murray scored 30 total points on 11-of-17 shooting (65.7 percent) and was 5-of-5 from deep when guarded by McDaniels in the regular season. He rained down tough shots from the midrange and three-point land against the All-Defensive Team-caliber perimeter defender. That's just who Murray is... he's an S-Tier tough shot-maker who directly takes on his greatest challengers.

Murray also shredded McDaniels' pick-and-roll defense. He "rejected" screens by dribbling away from the screener in the pick-and-roll to get McDaniels leaning in the wrong direction.

If McDaniels went under screens, Murray instantly made him pay with pull-up jumpers. He was among the association's best off-the-dribble three-point shooters at 42.6 percent.

Once again, Malone can get creative on offense with Murray to thwart Minnesota's pesky perimeter defense. Here, the Nuggets run a double pick-and-roll with Caldwell-Pope and Jokić screening for Murray in transition (this play is widely known as "double drag" across the NBA). Caldwell-Pope's screen sheds Murray of McDaniels, and Jokić's screen gets him matched up with Kyle Anderson. Jamal completes the play by nailing the pull-up three-pointer over Anderson.

The Nuggets shot just 30.7 percent from three-point land against Los Angeles. Only four teams shot a worse percentage from deep in the first round: the Orlando Magic, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the New Orleans Pelicans, and yup, the Lakers. They'll need to do a better job from behind the arc against the Timberwolves. That defense is way too good at taking away two-point shots to afford a poor three-point shooting series.

The Nuggets NEED Murray's pull-up jumper in this second-round series. It's their best chance at keeping Minnesota's defense honest. Otherwise, Denver is looking at a painted area that resembles a five-car pile-up.

second-round-series-preview-2-nuggets-vs-3-timberwolves

Second-Round Series Preview: #2 Nuggets vs. #3 Timberwolves

So, here we are. A rematch between two familiar foes, the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets. Poetic, isn't it? Denver and Los Angeles have faced off three separate times in the last five postseasons. All roads always seem to lead back to this matchup.

A year ago, the Nuggets sent the Lakers packing in a quick four-game sweep in the Western Conference Finals. Denver followed that up by defeating Los Angeles in all three regular-season meetups this season. They enter Saturday's Game 1 on an 8-game winning streak versus the Lakers.

Denver represents the Western Conference as the No. 2 seed after going 57-25 to tie the franchise's single-season win record. Los Angeles, meanwhile, finished in seventh place and defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 110-106, on Tuesday night to escape the clutches of the Play-In Tournament.

As familiar as this matchup may feel, each opponent has some subtle differences. That brings us to the first section of this series preview...

On a macro level, Los Angeles has made some philosophical changes. They spent their offseason retooling their roster and brought in veterans like Taurean Prince, Gabe Vincent, and Jaxson Hayes. This shifted the Lakers toward a more offensively-slanted outlook.

Los Angeles finished the season with the NBA's twelfth-best offense, an improvement from last season's 20th-place finish. That came at the expense of their defense, of course, which ranked in the top four in the second half of the 2022-23 regular season; this season, the Lakeshow defense finished 16th overall.

The catalyst for the Lakers' fortified offense was a wholesale improvement in shooting. Los Angeles finished with the eighth-best three-point percentage in the NBA at 37.7 percent. That is a DRAMATIC improvement over last season when the Lakers finished 25th in three-point accuracy at just 34.6 percent. League-average from three-point land is 36.6 percent, so they basically went from an extremely subpar shooting team to an above-average one.

The biggest change for Denver is their defense. They went from having the 17th-best defense in the 2022-23 regular season—the year they won the championship, by the way—to a ninth-place finish on defense this season. That'll be a fun battleground; Denver's improved defense versus Los Angeles' revamped offense and spacing.

Statistically speaking, the biggest question for the Lakers is can they defend the Nuggets? Denver posted a scintillating 123.3 offensive rating in the 2023 Conference Finals. Their offensive rating this year against the Lakers? 124.8 points per 100 possessions. Eek! That's the type of scoring you get while playing a video game on easy mode.

Anthony Davis → Nikola Jokić&nbsp;Rui Hachimura&nbsp;→ Aaron Gordon&nbsp;LeBron James →&nbsp;Michael Porter Jr. &nbsp;D'Angelo Russell → Kentavious Caldwell-Pope&nbsp;Austin Reaves → Jamal Murray

Let's get this out of the way: It wouldn't be crazy to expect a big series from Jamal Murray. Denver's point guard, well, loves playing the Lakers... to put it lightly.

A dearth of perimeter defenders doomed the Lakers in the Conference Finals, and Murray took full advantage by averaging a series-high 32.5 points per game on 52.7 percent from the field. There's a strong case to be made that Los Angeles has even fewer options to contain Murray. Dennis Schröder, a starter for the Lakers in the Conference Finals, departed in free agency, and Jarred Vanderbilt, another high-usage Murray defender, played just 29 games this season due to a laundry list of injuries. He did not suit up for Tuesday's Play-In game against the Pelicans.

Murray averaged 24.7 points on 50.8 percent from the field and 47.7 percent from deep, plus 9.1 assists, in his three regular-season outings against the Lakers this season. He looked utterly unbothered by pretty much every single defender head coach Darvin Ham threw at him.

I have Austin Reaves mocked as Murray's primary defender among Los Angeles' starters, and Murray made 6-of-10 shots in the 7:41 total minutes he and Reaves were matched up this season. Gabe Vincent is a fairly untested option for Los Angeles, but we've seen that movie before in the 2023 NBA Finals when Murray averaged 21.4 points and 10 assists against Vincent and his former employer, the Miami HEAT.

Defending Nikola Jokić will be another tall task for Ham. Breaking news! Guarding the best player in the world is hard! Anthony Davis will likely get the first crack at Jokić, but Nikola has proven time and time again that his strength and motor are tough for Davis to keep up with.

Now, Los Angeles could go to a different look by having Rui Hachimura guard Jokić as the primary defender with Davis lurking nearby as a secondary shot-blocker. That adjustment made headlines at the beginning of last year's Conference Finals. Even that has its pitfalls. Like he tends to do, Jokić used his supercomputer mind and a strong sample of 7 regular season and playoff games to devise counters to the "Rui Hachimura adjustment."

On post-ups, instead of driving directly into Hachimura's body, he'll spin away from the basket and loft fading hook shots—where Davis' 7'6 shot-blocking wingspan can't quite reach them. He'll take short-range fall-away jumpers over the top of Hachimura while Davis watches helplessly. The midrange is another comfort zone for Jokić. Davis can't really affect Nikola as a shot-blocker when he's 12-to-15 feet away from the rim, and the 6'8 Hachimura doesn't blot out much airspace against a talented jump-shooter like Jokić.

When Murray and Jokić link up for their lethal pick-and-roll, Nikola will catch the ball at the free-throw line and take a runner instead of rolling all the way to the basket where Davis awaits. The best way to remove AD's impact as a weakside rim protector is to just not go anywhere near him.

Jokić averaged 29.3 points on 55.2 percent shooting, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists against the Lakers this year. He's ready for whatever they throw at him.

Assuming things shake out this way, LeBron James guarding Michael Porter Jr. should be fun! MPJ was FAN-TAS-TIC against the Lakers this year and averaged 21.3 points on 50.8 percent shooting and 52.4 percent from deep. Featuring Porter Jr. on an endless set of off-ball plays could be a great way to exhaust James, which could affect his output on the other end. Make 39-year-old LeBron navigate handoffs and pindown screens for a full series. That requires a ton of energy... and focus.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope holds a great deal of significance as an offensive player in this series, but we'll save that for a later section...

And then finally, there's Aaron Gordon, who should have an integral role in this series. Not only is he Denver's full-time lob-slammer, but he can also punish some of Los Angeles' smaller players. Denver will often run off-ball plays to get Gordon post-ups against opposing guards. From there, he can mash and pulverize them with his bruising strength. Laker perimeter defenders already have their hands full with Murray, and Gordon's battering ram-like physicality is another method of wearing them down.

Nikola Jokić&nbsp;→ Anthony DavisAaron Gordon&nbsp;→ LeBron JamesMichael Porter Jr. → Rui HachimuraKentavious Caldwell-Pope&nbsp;→ D'Angelo RussellJamal Murray → Austin Reaves

So, a brief disclaimer. We're not going to talk a ton about Denver's defense here aside from just listing out the projected matchups. That's for a later section! Caldwell-Pope guarding D'Angelo Russell might be the most important matchup in the series. We'll get to that shortly! Porter Jr. guarding Hachimura will also be incredibly important for Denver's help defense, but again, we'll get to that!

Here's the main thing I wanted to note. Facing LeBron James in round one should be a CHALLENGE. Last year, Denver ran into James in the third round after 12 grueling playoff games. It certainly felt like James ran out of gas in multiple Conference Finals games due to his heavy workload. This year, LeBron's coming off a week of rest with zero playoff games under his belt. He should be much fresher. Aaron Gordon was James' primary defender last postseason and did a great job of forcing him into tough shots, but James is the NBA's all-time leading scorer for a reason.

KEY TO THE SERIES (LOS ANGELES): THE CLUTCH!

The Nuggets outscored the Lakers by a full 17 points in the clutch this season. That includes Denver's dramatic butt-kicking on March 3rd in which the Nuggets outscored the Lakers, 14-4, in the final five minutes.

Los Angeles has long been without an antidote to Denver's lethal two-man game between Jokić and Murray, in large part a reflection of their scarcity of defenders for either star.

Denver's been creative about using their two best players in combination. They've done more than just run straight pick-and-roll. For example, in the first game of the 2023-24 NBA season, the crunch time Nuggets repeatedly went to an "elbow series" with Jokić holding the ball at the left elbow, and Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope screening and splitting apart. They went to that same setup in later games—with Jokić at the elbow and Murray playing off that—to similarly efficient results.

Murray and Jokić's two-man game has been so efficient against the Lakers that it has them seeing ghosts out there. No, literally. Watch Anthony Davis in the clip below lurch back toward Jokić at the expense of a Murray layup.

Point being, the Lakers have been without an answer to the Nuggets in close-game situations. In fact, Los Angeles has looked exhausted and bewildered in those moments, and they've settled for bad shots. Pull-up three-pointers from players who feast at the basket. Jumpers out of the pick-and-roll instead of strong rolls and energizing dunks. Playing that way is hard; the physical toll of living at the rim cannot go unnoticed. But many times, it just feels like the Lakers... don't really have go-to plays when it matters. Or at least, nothing like Denver's bread-and-butter two-man game between Jokić and Murray.

What might that look like for Los Angeles? Well, here's an example. Los Angeles has gotten some great stuff by using LeBron James as a screener. That dates back to last season's Conference Finals, and it's certainly held firm in this year's regular season.

Los Angeles has probably left some food on the table with this action. They haven't run it over and over and over like the Nuggets do with the Murray and Jokić pick-and-roll. And look, it makes sense. Screening and rolling isn't exactly the most glorifying task for a star player like LeBron. It's also really physically taxing. Denver would devise counters to it, as well. But given the success Los Angeles has had with using James as a screener, it's surprising we haven't seen it more in crunch time. Maybe that's something we'll see in this first-round series. It will be fascinating to see how Denver counters if Los Angeles does indeed go this route.

I've made the joke before, but every game against Los Angeles has felt the exact same since the Conference Finals. A close three quarters. Maybe Los Angeles is able to build a slight second-half lead. And then in crunch time, the Nuggets take over. We've been watching the same TV show on repeat since last May. It's on the Lakers to change the plot line.

KEY TO THE SERIES (DENVER): PICK-AND-ROLL DEFENSE

The Lakers ran the ninth-most pick-and-roll possessions this season. They went to that playtype a lot! Denver, remarkably, finished with the NBA's fourth-best pick-and-roll defense according to points per possession. Their ability to guard the screen-and-roll game was, by far, the biggest reason for their defensive ascendance.

So, how will the good guys guard their opponent's pick-and-rolls in the first real test of the postseason? Here's my guess.

D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves shot 39 percent and 37.2 percent, respectively, on off-the-dribble three-point shots this season. Gabe Vincent didn't have a great year with the long ball, but he's got some pedigree as a shooter. Expect to see Jokić playing "at the level" against pick-and-rolls involving any of the Laker guards.

Here's an example of what that looks like. When Vincent came off this pick-and-roll, Jokić stood at the top of the key to provide Reggie Jackson extra help. Nikola positioning his body that high up took away the off-the-dribble shot from Vincent. That's what "playing at the level" means.

Against everyone else—so, mostly LeBron James—Jokić should play much lower on the floor in a "drop coverage." Notice his positioning here, below the free-throw line instead of above it like he was against Vincent. James is having a great season as a shooter, but he's made just 33.8 percent of his pull-up three-pointers. It's more valuable to keep Jokić planted near the basket against James, even if that comes at the expense of some off-the-dribble shots. He's just too dangerous up close.

One thing that really stood out in the film was just how liberal Denver was about helping off Hachimura, especially when he was stashed in the corners. When Los Angeles went to the pick-and-roll, Denver would have Hachimura's man cheat over early into the middle of the painted area and completely wall off the rim. Here, that's Porter Jr. cheating off Rui to gum up Max Christie's roll to the basket.

Hachimura was a 42.2 percent three-point shooter this year, but he made just 34.7 percent of his shots from deep in his previous four seasons. Denver played those percentages.

Los Angeles averaged the second-most points in the painted area this season. It's a major component of their offense—living near the rim. So, Denver clogged the paint with extra bodies at the expense of potential outside shots from historically inconsistent shooters like Hachimura. It was a risk they felt was worth taking.

Given their record against the Lakers since last March, who's to argue with that strategy?

Here's maybe the most important statistic of this first-round series, at least from the Lakers' side of things.

Los Angeles is 20-6 when D'Angelo Russell scores 20 or more points. They were 7-0 in the 2023 postseason when Russell scored 17 points or more. Their success has long been tied to his scoring. Of note: He did not break 10 points in a single game of the 2023 Conference Finals sweep.

Russell had a career year as a scorer with 18 points per game on 45.6 percent from the field and a career-high 41.5 percent from three-point range on more than 7 attempts per game. Since the turn of the new year, he's been a 20-point-per-game scorer. So much of Los Angeles' offensive success can be derived from Russell's career-best season. Cutting off the head of the snake will be paramount for the Nuggets.

Denver will likely designate 'DLo' duties to Caldwell-Pope, their All-Defensive Team-caliber perimeter defender. Christian Braun should also get a lengthy look. Russell is many things as a scorer. Crafty. Skilled. Gifted with a soft shooting touch. But he's not much of an athlete, both vertically and in terms of foot speed. That's where Braun enters the picture, a 6'7 springboard of a perimeter defender who can jump out of the gym with a 40-inch vertical. CB's athleticism really seemed to bother DLo this season. He shot just 25 percent against the recent 23-year-old in three games.

Russell's impact will likely decide the length of this series...

Playing Russell off the floor, or getting close to it, is one of Denver's best avenues toward building an early series advantage. Given that he'll likely be DLo's primary defender, this almost automatically makes Caldwell-Pope the biggest X-Factor for the Nuggets. His defense alone could change the series. It wouldn't be the first time that happened.

Defense isn't the only way to mitigate Russell's impact. He's the Lakers' weakest defender in their starting lineup, so attacking him on that end could put more pressure on him to perform offensively. If he's unable to do both—score and defend—well, hmph, the Lakers might have to start asking some tough questions. That's how things played out last year when Russell, a Game 1 starter in the Conference Finals, saw his playing time fall to just 15 total minutes in the do-or-die Game 4 (Russell averaged just 6.3 points per game on 32.3 percent shooting in the series).

Caldwell-Pope can help Denver attack Russell's defense. The Lakers will likely try to "hide" Russell on KCP just because he's fifth in the pecking order of average shots. Denver can counter by having Caldwell-Pope run the pick-and-roll with Jokić to force the switch of Russell guarding Nikola. Similarly, Denver can go to guard-guard pick-and-roll sets between Murray and Caldwell-Pope, and if Los Angeles switches, Murray can then bully Russell in the post. He loves taking opposing guards to the woodshed.

Denver can even run specific sets for Caldwell-Pope to pick at Russell's defense. They love having KCP cut from the corner to the elbow around one of Jokić's sturdy screens for catch-and-shoot jumpers, and here, Nikola's pick destabilizes Russell as he tries to keep up with Kenny P (We should really call this play the "KCP Cut," by the way).

Russell's footspeed really hurts him defensively, and although Caldwell-Pope isn't a high-volume ball handler, Denver can use his off-ball movement to exhaust and frustrate the Laker ball-handler.

Caldwell-Pope finished with 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting in his one regular-season appearance against the Lakers. He averaged 14.8 points per game on 48.9 percent shooting and 44.4 percent from three in the Conference Finals, by far a high for KCP in any 2023 playoff series. Listen, I don't want to put words in his mouth, but it certainly seems like, I don't know, maybe, perhaps, he takes this matchup a little personally? Against the former employer that sent him packing to Washington in the Russell Westbrook blockbuster of 2021? Is that crazy to throw out there?

Either way, KCP will have his work cut out for him with Russell. If he can continue to score the ball like he has against the Lakers, things could get spooky. He certainly feels like the obvious X-Factor because of his importance on both sides of the floor.

Game 1 between Denver and Los Angeles will tip Saturday at 6:30 p.m. MT and air on ABC.

All statistics courtesy of NBA Stats, Synergy Statistics, Basketball Reference, or Cleaning the Glass unless stated otherwise.

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First-Round Series Preview: #2 Nuggets vs. #7 Lakers

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